Voting confidence: a risky bet for the Bayrou government
By summoning a vote of trust on September 8, François Bayrou returned to a common practice of the Ve Republic but still used by governments with a majority in the National Assembly, which is not the case of the Prime Minister, who is therefore likely to see his government fall.
In practice, François Bayrou will pronounce a new declaration of general policy on his budgetary orientations, followed by a debate and then a vote of the deputies, as provided for in article 49, paragraph first, of the Constitution. A “Commitment of responsibility” which is not new, since it has already been activated 41 times since 1958. To this close that the governments concerned could all count on a comfortable majority-and often absolute-at the Palais-Bourbon.
This has not been the case since 2022. Besides, the last to have used it was Jean Castex, in July 2020. None of his successors risked there: neither Elisabeth Borne, nor Gabriel Attal, nor Michel Barnier-himself fell on a vote of censorship in December 2024, for the first time since 1962.
And for good reason: “The vote is issued by the absolute majority of the votes cast”recalls the National Assembly on its website, in a sheet devoted to article 49 of the Constitution. However, the balance of power is very unfavorable to the Bayrou government: on the far right, the national rally (123 deputies) and its UDR allies (15 seats) quickly said that they would vote against confidence; Likewise on the left, the “rebellious” (71 elected), the Ecologists (38) and the Communists (17) expressed their desire to have the Prime Minister fall.
Or already 264 votes against, when the four groups supporting the executive (Renaissance, the Republicans, Modem and Horizons) total only 210 seats. Supposing, however, that all the deputies are present during the vote, the fate of the government would then be suspended from the position of the socialists (66 deputies)-and, to a lesser extent, of the 23 independents of the Liot group (freedoms, independents, overseas and territories).
