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ZKB forecastMany tenants will soon look forward to deeper rents
The mortgage reference interest rate is likely to decrease soon. So the rents should be cheaper again.
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The ZKB assumes that the mortgage reference interest rate will fall to 1.25 percent this year.
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So soon up to 46 percent of Swiss households should be able to apply for a reduction in rent, says ZKB.
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In the canton of Zurich it is even 70 percent.
On June 19, the Swiss National Bank lowered the key interest rate to zero percent. This affects the mortgage reference interest rate. This is based on the average interest rate of all outstanding mortgages and is considered a guideline for rents. Now the sentence tends down. According to the ZKB, it should drop from 1.5 to 1.25 percent by the end of the year – so rents should also be cheaper again.
Before 2023, many tenants dispensed with a rental reduction request for reductions in the reference interest rate. The ZKB predicts tenants who were recently affected by an increase in rent increases soon. But how many benefit?
Not all can request deeper rent
According to data from the Federal Statistics Office, after the second increase in the reference interest rate, around 40 percent of Swiss rental budgets received a rent increase. These benefit from the lowering of the reference interest rate to 1.5 percent and the expected reduction to 1.25 percent by the end of 2025.
In addition, another part of the tenant will only be entitled to request reduction in rent after the second reduction. These households had only been forwarded to the first reference rate increase in June 2023, but not the second in December 2023.
A total of up to 46 percent of Swiss households can apply for a reduction in rent after the second reduction. At 70 percent, it is even a clear majority in the canton of Zurich, where increases in reference interest more frequently.
Easy relaxation of the offer rents
After the strong increase in the offer rents in previous years, the rental market shows signs of relaxation in the first half of 2025. Especially in the city of Zurich: While the offer rents in the past two years have had growth rates of over ten percent, the increase is now less than four percent.
The decline in planning activities brakes new buildings
During the pandemic, the planning activity for new housing projects decreased sharply. It was not until 2024 that there was a recovery, but this intermediate high did not last long: the number of building applications decreased again in the first half of 2025.
“Building land is still in short supply and tightened regulations make it significantly difficult in particular, in particular inner -city compressors,” said the ZKB. Since a building application takes around three years until implementation, the decline on the housing market will be noticeable around 2028.
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