How could it get that far?

A 35-minute phone call fell into a crisis. “No agreement could be found,” Federal President Karin Keller-Sutter had to report after talking to the American President Donald Trump about tariffs the evening before August 1st. Only just in summer mode will the Federal Council now come together for an extraordinary meeting. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs of Bundesrat Guy Parmelin wants to meet with representatives of the economy. And a task force should analyze what nobody can explain so far. What happened?

39 percent – the tariffs should be high for Swiss goods that are delivered to the United States in the future. The deadline for renegotiations runs until August 7th. While the European Union and the Principality of Liechtenstein (with which Switzerland forms a customs union) are each topped with 15 percent, Switzerland is treated like Laos or Syria.

So far, the Federal Council communicates above all: perplexity. Minister of Economics Guy Parmelin said on Saturday evening in the “Forum” by RTS that it was “surprised” by the talle decision. It is a “punishment”. Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter said on August 1 at the Rütli that the situation was “absurd”.

How could Switzerland get into this “absurd” situation? Discussions with well -informed people from the environment of several federal councilors as well as from business and diplomacy enable the reconstruction of a drama.

Am phone and

What is certain is who plays the crucial role on the Swiss side: Federal President Karin Keller-Sutter. In spring she thinks she is well prepared for her opponent, the American President Donald Trump. In winter she read his book “The Art of the Deal”. She grew up with three older brothers, she once said about her dealings with power politicians that she learned to fight early.

Shortly after Trump presented his customs table on his “Liberation Day” on April 2 in the Rosengarten of the White House (“Switzerland: 31%”), Keller-Sutter can be connected to Trump. She points out that the Swiss economy is the sixth largest investor in the United States, that Switzerland does not raise industrial tariffs and that the commercial balance sheet deficit should be relativized that American companies have “full market access”. It’s a 25-minute phone call, but it becomes a myth. The Swiss Federal President made Donald Trump clear the consequences of his customs policy, writes the Washington Post. When Trump sits his tariffs on it, the director of the United States National Economic Council at CNN explains: «The break goes back to trusting and sincere conversations. I had (..) A very mutual conversation with the President and the Swiss Federal President. »

Karin Keller-Sutter also seems to succumb to a myth that she has created: “Donald Trump has asked many questions,” she says. “I obviously found access to him.”

It seems to be going well

At the latest when Karin Keller-Sutter and Guy Parmelin talked about a customs deal with the American finance minister Scott Bessent and the trade officer Jamieson Greer on May 9 in Geneva. The conversations were “friendly”, it is said that Switzerland is a priority. “Switzerland should be one of the next countries,” says Keller-Sutter.

On the same evening, she is enthusiastically received in Zurich in the guild house for Meisen – at the anniversary festival of the “Nebel splalt”, whose editor -in -chief referred to as “superstar”. Keller-Sutter tells of her small talk with Scott Bessent (“How was the journey?”) And then also explores the motive situation of the Trump government: Multilateral systems such as the European Union would be less valued in Washington, she says, Switzerland is an advantage.

Is it arrogance? Several sources say that Switzerland has probably assumed that the United States worked similarly to Switzerland. Finance Minister’s benevolence had been improperly rely on, even if the Americans had already made it clear in Geneva who will ultimately decide: “It’s the President!” The Switzerland system is completely overwhelmed with the day-for-day mode in which the Trump system works. The Federal Council had known that Trump did not stick to agreements and agreements on a technical level, but only in itself.

Increasingly doubt

The confidence in the Federal Council is still great in July. Trump’s finance minister Scott Bessent, Minister of Commerce Howard Lutnick and also the trade representative Jamieson Greer stand for the negotiated agreement (which apparently provides for a customs tariff of 10 percent). If the Americans had made further demands, Switzerland would have improved, says a source close to the Federal Council. The technical and political discussions have been promising. Guy Parmelin is confident that his State Secretary Helene Budliger Artieda is confident, Karin Keller-Sutter is confident. When they inquire several times in America in July, come back several times: everything is good.

However, the decisive signature is still missing: When the agreement is to be discussed at a cabinet session in early July, the plans change. Soon will be in mid -July and there are increasingly doubts in Bern. Towards the end of July it suddenly said from American interlocutors that Trump has had enough of complex deals that he just wanted to see money, so it formulates a well -informed source. In the environment of the Federal Council one speaks of the “curse of early negotiations”: When Switzerland took the talks in April, it was also assumed that a regular agreement was realistic – until the Swiss deal was on Trump’s desk, other countries would have made a lot more creative offers for him.

I have a phone

And so Federal President Karin Keller-Sutter asks for a second telephone call to Donald Trump shortly before the end of the ultimatum. She has long since made the customs agreement on her personal matter: in the conviction of enjoying the respect of the American president (“I obviously found access to him”).

The management is on the day before August 1, in the evening at 8 p.m. Karin Keller-Sutter tells Trump, Switzerland is currently committing her national holiday, the country’s history is declining to 1291. He almost couldn’t believe that, should she say later. Then the conversation becomes difficult, Keller-Sutter quickly realizes that Trump is only interested in one number: the trade deficit of 38.5 billion. In its logic, Switzerland steals him in billions of bills.

Keller-Sutter is calculating her arguments, and when she also contradicts him, the area of the President becomes restless on the other side of the management. State Secretary Helene Budliger receives nervous news on her cell phone, so it reports a source. The conversation is not good, so one should not deal with the president that it should intervene. But Budliger, who has so far successfully negotiated with America and enjoys a good reputation there, is not in the call.

On the phone, a Swiss politician who speaks of “reliability” in her August 1, August speech meets a New York real estate dealer, the president of the unreliability. Since childhood, she has been proud to contradict those who are more powerful than her. And he endures little as badly as contradicting at the wrong moment – unforgettable, as he demonstrated the Ukrainian President Selenski in front of the camera when he argued against him.

After 35 minutes the conversation is at the end and Karin Keller-Sutter (and with her Switzerland) is embarrassed: with the self-confidence of a “special relationship” she once entered the negotiations, with 39 percent inch it comes out, shortly before Syria.

Donald Trump explains it on August 1: “We have a huge deficit of $ 40 billion.” The trade officer Jamieson Greer also says: «Switzerland delivers huge amounts of drugs to our country. We want to produce medicines in our country. » When he is asked by an astonished journalist whether it is not true that Switzerland and the USA have already agreed, Greer says: It doesn’t make that exactly, it always applies, “Nothing is agreed unile everything is aggreed”.

The Art of the Deal

Where are Switzerland’s mistakes? Several sources criticized that the Federal Council had rely too much on Trump’s minister and too much for the rule of law principles that Trump had long since overcome. The bitter truth sounds: Switzerland took too long to present a formulated offer to the United States.

Bern could hope for a long time to be better at the end of the European Union. Karin Keller-Sutter was confident that it was the second country to be able to complete a deal as the second country. But then the Federal Council lost a lot of time before he could agree on a negotiating mandate. Two departments wrote reports and delayed the process, so sources report. They also did not want to do concessions that would have contradicted the agreements with the European Union.

When the Federal Council finally presented the offer at the beginning of July, Japan had already assured the United States investments of 550 billion; At the end of July, South Korea promised $ 350 billion. The EU had already adapted to Trump’s Art of the Deal at this point. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited the American President in Scotland while golfing, brought him the cuddle (“a hard negotiator”) and dollar: would be invested in the United States $ 600 billion. Oil and liquid gas will be imported for three years, in terms of 250 billion.

Leyen was like the CEO of a group, for them there was no negotiating mandate for the individual EU countries. The fracking gas is an energy form that the EU wants to detach itself with its own green deal. The French Prime Minister Bayrou spoke of a “black day” for Europe. The EU had submitted to the United States.

Switzerland suddenly stood petty with its efforts to deal with approval and investments in the amount of CHF 200 billion. The Federal Council had acted as it always acts: with advertising and reports. Until Trump had changed his idea of a good deal.

In the meantime, the Federal Council has also noticed that further concessions are necessary. Switzerland has negotiated at the technical level, but now politics is on it. On Saturday evening, Minister of Economics Guy Parmelin said in the RTS program “Forum” that a political solution was not excluded. «At every negotiation there are phases in which it works and those in which it does not work. The political will is crucial at the highest level. »

According to Parmelin, Switzerland could also negotiate with American liquefied gas about trade-offs. The import of American beef also becomes an issue. Donald Trump is very important to agriculture. For a few days, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs and Influent Business Circles have been exchange further ideas on how the trade deficit between Switzerland and the USA could be reduced: reducing gold exports, starting an AI-Robotics initiative-there seem to be no limits to creativity.

A deal seems possible. Provided that the Federal Council acts before Trump has changed his opinion again.