The closure of the Strait of Ormuz, the fatal weapon of Iran which makes our economy tremble: “In this scenario, we would not last six months”

“This strait is the obligatory passage of almost all the export of hydrocarbons from the regionsummarizes the economist Philippe Ledent (ING). Just look at a card: on the left. Nevertheless, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal; On the right, all the major producers of the Gulf. Similarly, Without Ormuz, everything is stopped. However, It is not only Europe or the United States that would be affected, but the whole planet. Similarly, The oil market is global. Therefore, No matter who the barrel was intended for the start: if it does not arrive safely. Meanwhile, it is the whole offer that becomes scarce, and therefore the prices that climb for everyone.“

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Worse still: tensions on this hyperstrategic area could also flambé insurance costs. Furthermore, as was the case during Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Similarly, And faced with this escalation, Europe is in a delicate position.

“We are a target, much more indirect, more economically, Continues Tanguy Struye, professor of international relations at the UClouvain. The European Achilles heel remains energetic: we depend on the gas. For example, oil in the region, not just that, but that would hit us much more “than the Americans.“

The implications may therefore be concrete and immediate. Nevertheless, “”A strait of impracticable or insecure Ormuz will pose us problems in the insurance closure strait ormuz, fatal weapon of ships “, he warns. The simple threat would be enough to destabilize the markets: “If threats. incident tomorrow, even a minor, that means that all insurances increase, which means that many ships will hesitate to seek oil and gas there“.

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And in the event of real blocking of the strait by Iran, analysts do not exclude a brutal flight price. “If the market begins to seriously integrate this risk, we could easily cross the 100 dollars barrier mark”warns Philippe Ledent. Today at 80 dollars, the price could climb rapidly, and reach up to $ 120 in a prolonged blocking scenario of several weeks. “”It would be a disaster scenario, because it would deeply destabilize the world market.”

Markets on the alert

But for the moment, uncertainty reigns closure strait ormuz, fatal weapon hour per hour. The price of a barrel can indeed evolve according to the discussions and communications of each other. The absence of new American strikes this Monday morning temporarily calmed the game. but the afternoon and the day on Tuesday could reserve other surprises.

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Should we expect an immediate flambé to the pump? Not necessarily. In the short term, Philippe Ledent calls for nuance: “We stay at a price level comparable to that of 2023. If we look in euros, oil is even slightly cheaper than last year.” Clearly: don’t panic for households – at least, not yet.

The expert even highlights a reassuring element: as the euro has greatly appreciated compared to the dollar. when we look at the price of oil compared to the euro, we are below the average closure strait ormuz, fatal weapon price compared to last year. “”What to put the impact on our energy bills into perspective … as long as the situation does not degenerate “, indicates the economist.

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The other question is. whether Europe is armed enough to face a new energy shock? Yes, but to a certain extent only. “”All countries have strategic petroleum stocks, precisely to deal with this type of crisis “Recalls Tanguy Struye. These reservations make it possible to hold in the event of a hard blow … but not indefinitely. “”We will not last six months with that. If the Strait remains blocked for several weeks, stocks alone will no longer be enough. “

For Damien Ernst, professor at ULiège and energy expert, Europe has never really left the gas crisis. “”We finished winter with fairly low reserves and the filling obligation was released before October 1. Result: stocks are filled today too slowly. “ A decision he deems irresponsible: “It was a major political error. We play with fire. Even without worsening the Iran-Israel conflict, a cold winter could be enough to cause tensions.”

The closure strait ormuz, fatal weapon first signs are already visible: “The price of gas on the term markets has increased from 32 to almost 40 €/MWh in two months. an increase of 15 to 20 %.“And if the Strait of Ormuz were to be blocked. the impact would be massive: “We could lose 20 % of world oil. The barrel would climb to 150 or even 200 dollars, and the gas would follow. LNG prices could reach 70 to 100 €/MWh.”

Conclusion: Even without extreme scenario, Ernst plans a more expensive winter than the previous one. But in the event of blocking in Ormuz combined with a rigorous winter. Europe would be exposed to a real energy disaster.

Faced with such a situation. Europe will have to bet on other levers, such as the diversification of supplies, the solidarity between Member States and no doubt, a capacity for diplomatic reaction to closure strait ormuz, fatal weapon a shock to world repercussions.