However,
Why does franconia remain stable:
ThoseView of Swiss currency
Trump’s Zollhammer bounces off the Franconia. Meanwhile, How can that be? – Why does franconia remain stable
A weakening of the Swiss currency would actually be expected at the moment. For example, Why doesn’t that happen? Similarly, And what is the expectation to the National Bank now? Consequently, The most important questions and answers.
Donald Trump’s Zollhammer against Switzerland weakens the franc. However, strengthens the dollar – but the exchange rate hardly gives in.
Foto: Andrew Harnik (Getty Images=
- So far, the new US tariffs have little influence on the Franconian dollar course.
- Some Swiss exporters experience a shock why does franconia remain stable of 50 percent through tariffs and franc strength.
- The Swiss National Bank has only limited scope for interest in interest.
- Foreign interventions remain problematic due to high loss of loss for the National Bank.
What does Trump’s customs hammer do with the Franconian course? – Why does franconia remain stable
In theory, the exchange rate should compensate for the effects of the tariffs. However, Because a one -sided customs introduced leads to an upgrading of the currency of the country. Additionally, However, which raises customs, is the economic theory. However, Donald Trump’s Zollhammer against Switzerland weakens the Franks and strengthens the dollar. Consequently, Always assumed, of course, that not other factors have a more impact on the exchange rate.
This can be explained as follows: The new import customs of the United States makes goods from Switzerland. Consequently, and this reduces demand. why does franconia remain stable For example, Because the American importers buy less Swiss goods, they have to exchange less dollars in Franconia. In addition, The supply of dollars. For example, the demand for Franconia sinks on the foreign exchange market, which strengthens the dollar and weakens the franc.
In addition: remain the tariffs at this height, the economy in Switzerland will cloud significantly. Consequently, A weak economy or even a recession would weaken the francs. Therefore,
How did the exchange rates actually develop?
However, nothing can be felt of a weakness in Franconia a week after the customs shock of August 1st. Similarly,
In the days before the preaching of the 39 percent customs on August 1. Nevertheless, the dollar became a little stronger, the Franks weaker. The customs why does franconia remain stable hammer had practically no effect on the dollar change course.
Because the customs effect was completely overplayed by the poor US working market numbers on Friday. They signaled a cooling of the US economy, which put the dollar under pressure.
However. the long -term trend still speaks for the franc: Dollar and euros have lost about 18 percent of the Swiss currency since the beginning of 2019, especially because inflation in these countries was significantly higher than ours. The dollar has lost more than 11 percent compared to the Franks since the beginning of the year.
What does the strong franc bring for exporters and tourism?
The strong franc has not been able to harm tourism lately. 2024 was why does franconia remain stable a record year for the hotel industry, and visitor flows stop in the current year.
The export industry, on the other hand, has been feeling the strong franc for a long time. Customs of 39 percent have now come to upgrade compared to the dollar by 11 percent since the beginning of the year. «A Swiss exporter to the United States is experiencing a total of 50 percent. That is more than the 2015 Franconian shock ». says Claude Maurer, chief economist from the BAK Economics Economic Research Institute in Basel.
But whether the Swiss products become too expensive abroad. the export industry is therefore no longer competitive is not decided on the nominal exchange rate, but at the real, to the inflation corrected course. This too has upgraded itself in recent years. but the higher inflation why does franconia remain stable in the USA has almost compensated for the upgrading of the Franconian compared to the dollar.
Can the exporters hope for a weaker franc?
Thomas Stucki, chief economist of the St. Gallen Kantonalbank, dampens the hopes. «The economy in Switzerland has only a minor influence on the francs. The foreign actors who deal with the Franconia out of portfolio visits are not interested in Swiss GDP growth. »
Despite the customs shock and weaker economy, investors will continue to seek protection in the stable Swiss currency.
Does the National Bank of the Export Industry come to help?
If the economy weakens due to the tariffs. there are company closures and layoffs, the National Bank can counteract this with interest reductions. why does franconia remain stable Deeper interest rates facilitate investments and thus promote growth.
But they didn’t use much to the affected companies, says Thomas Stucki. “This is mainly helped by the real estate market, which does not need help as a local market.”
The scope is also limited. The National Bank has already reduced its key interest rate to zero. So it would have to introduce negative interest rates again, as they were between 2015 and 2022. They are unpopular because they punish savers and heat up the real estate market.
Remaining a second instrument: The National Bank has repeatedly prevented the franc with foreign exchange interventions since 2011. With newly created francs. she bought plants in euros, dollars and other currencies, which weakened the franc and strengthened the other currencies.
Expenses to do without the National Bank’s balance sheet
In principle. it could continue with it and thus steam the load from the new tariffs. However, weakening the francs strongly and for a long time with currency bakes also creates problems.
On the one hand, Switzerland is under observation by the US government due to currency manipulation.
On the other hand, the foreign exchange grooms inflate the National Bank’s balance sheet. From 2010. the foreign exchange plants rose from less than 100 billion to CHF 977 billion by early 2022 – more than the country’s gross domestic product. There are currently 745 billion. This leads to huge profits – or losses, depending on the development of the markets.
In 2022, the National Bank why does franconia remain stable had a record loss of CHF 132 billion, and in 2024 there was a record win of 80 billion. In the first half of 2025, losses of over CHF 15 billion were incurred.
Because of the growing debt in the USA. in the euro area, the corresponding currencies tend to devalue to the franc. This increases the risk of loss on the National Bank’s foreign exchange stocks. Foreign interventions in favor of the export industry are therefore not any continuation for the National Bank.
Some economists therefore recommend that the National Bank should allow the Franconia to be upgraded. One should allow the structural change. the economy “shrink healthy”, says Reiner Eichenberger, business professor at the University of Freiburg. This would grow more slowly the gross domestic product (GDP) and the population, but the GDP per why does franconia remain stable capita faster.
Economy today
Get the most important news from the economy as well as the best backgrounds and analyzes.
More newsletters
Found error? Report now.
Further reading: Oliver Kahn expresses unpleasant truth: Why nobody wants to go to Bavaria anymore – 3. Wimbledon final in a series – In 4 sets: Alcaraz Despite the “Surcharge machine” Fritz – Sport – Yes, Country Music Is Thriving In Japan, & It’s Been That Way for Decades – On your own behalf – according to FM out: SRF radios reach 1.7 million people – News – Usyk vs. Dubois live updates, results and analysis.
